By 2080 Siberia to become 'the go-to place to live due to climate change'

Siberia may become 'more hospitable' with people flocking to enjoy its more moderate weather,  say researchers from the V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest.

Among the benefits of climate change will be milder temperatures, less permafrost, and the hope of vastly increased crop production, enticing in more settlers, with a potential three-fold rise in the population, say scientists. 

'By the end of the 21st century, 50%-80% of central Siberia might have a climate suitable for agriculture, with traditional Siberian crops shifting northward by as much as 70 kilometres per decade,' according to one study cited by the experts.

'Soil conditions would put limits on farming, but the warmer climate might allow the introduction of crops such as rice, beans, and European grapes.'

Siberia has one vineyard currently in the Altai Mountains, but Chateau Siberia will be far more popular in two generations from now. 

'The population density may increase by threefold under one scenario,' Dr Elena Parfenova told Eos after the studies based on 100 Siberian weather stations were highlighted at a scientific conference in Japan.

'But this is just the potential.'

There are some qualifications to the theory. Indeed, quite a number - including the threat of northern areas, frozen as permafrost  for millennia, turning into vast swamps.

Lake Baikal in summer and winter. Pictures: The Siberian Times 

'It doesn't mean people will necessarily go there,' she said. 'There are no railways, and infrastructure is poor.

'I have some doubts because nobody will know when the permafrost will thaw.

'Maybe this territory will transform into a big bog. But it will be better than now because the severe winter cold will be milder.'

'This wild card called the 'big bog theory' seems hard to assess.'

Vineyard in the Altai region, and black sand beaches of Kamchatka, the Far East of Russia. Pictures: The Siberian Times, Boris Prok

Permafrost holds some 1,400 gigatons of carbon globally, more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. As it melts, greenhouses gases like methane are released, enhancing the impact of warming, in a vicious circle.

What's more, existing infrastructure like roads and bridges - built on permafrost - will be destroyed. 

Yet there are some pluses. New forests will emerge in more northerly regions of Siberia, acting as a carbon sink, potentially slowing the damaging impact. 

Vasyugan Swamp, the largest swamp in the northern hemisphere, and stunning views of the Altai Mountains. Pictures: Svetlana Kazina

Parfenova and her fellow scientists said: 'Siberia is known to be sparsely populated. 

'As can be viewed from night lights imagery, the Siberian population is concentrated along the forest-steppe zone in the south, with its comfortable climate and rich agriculture on fertile soils. 'In a warming climate, vast Siberian lands may be attractive for population migrations.

'Our goal was to evaluate Siberia's climate severity and comfort for humans from a view point of winter conditions.

'in the contemporary climate and to predict the potential in climate comfort in a warming climate by the 2080s.'

Zotino Tall Tower Observation facility (ZOTTO) in Krasnoyarsk region is used to measure how the concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and the rising temperatures of the terrestrial atmosphere affect each other; Dr Tatiana Parfenova. Pictures: Vera Salnitskaya

'Additionally, our goal was to evaluate future crop potential that may evolve as the climate changes.'

Dr Parfenova is the member of the American Geophysical Union, British Ecological Society and the International Association of Vegetation Sciences.

Her institute is part of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 

Novosibirsk, the Trans-Siberian railway and Barnaul in pictures by Slava Stepanov